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Sell stocks on 'eventual' recession: JPMorgan

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Lucas Jackson | Reuters

Even with the big market rally, investors should lower their equity exposure due to rising recession risk, according to one prominent Wall Street firm.

"The eventual recession should bring U.S. stocks down some 30 percent, creating a strong downward risk skew to returns over the next few years," JPMorgan's global strategist Jan Loeys wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

Loeys' economic models put the chances of a U.S. recession over the next year at 1 in 3 compared to 1 in 4 previously. It also sees a two-thirds probability of recession within two years and close to 100 percent within three years.

"We use the rally in stocks to sell it and go underweight stocks," he wrote. "The fundamentals of growth, earnings and recession risk have not improved, and if anything have worsened. We remain wary of the near-empty ammo box of policymakers."