Predicting what global markets do next may come down to one specific currency, according to one technician.
On Wednesday, Rich Ross of Evercore ISI said the Brazilian real is approaching a key level, which could mark the beginning of a turnaround for emerging markets, commodities and stocks around the world. The plunge in commodity prices over the past year has weighed on emerging markets, since many of those countries depend heavily on commodity exports.
But as commodities have bounced this year, the renewed strength could be set to take emerging markets and equities higher, Ross said.
"As commodities have strengthened ... that's eased pressure on high yield and allowed the market to have a very nice counter-trend advance here," he said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."
Specifically, Ross recommends watching the real, which has fallen steeply against the U.S. dollar in the last few years. Now, the real is approaching an important technical level at its 200-day moving average at 3.68 per dollar, he said.
"You're testing a key level of support on the charts, which has held for the entirety of the decline in crude oil," he said. "If we were to break back below that 200-day moving average, it could set up a very convincing buy signal for the Brazilian real."
However, Erin Gibbs of S&P Investment Advisory remains more cautious about adding portfolio exposure to Brazilian assets. As a major trade partner with China, Brazil suffered from slowing demand from the large commodities consumer, Gibbs said. As some worries over China have abated, Brazil has seen a major comeback.
"As we've seen some stabilization about concerns on Chinese growth ... they've really had a huge recovery," she said Wednesday on "Trading Nation."
Brazil's Bovespa index has risen 12 percent in local currency this year, as many markets around the world have tumbled. However, the overall economic picture still looks grim for Brazil, she said. According to Gibbs, the country's GDP growth is expected to contract 3.5 percent this year.
"We're still looking at some major concerns within the market, though it does look cheaper at this point," Gibbs said.
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