The CBOE Volatility Index is down 36 percent since the market started rallying from the lows reached on February 11.
But Paul Christopher, head global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, tells CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Monday, 3 things can drive volatility up later this year: oil, China and the elections.
He is expecting some rebound in oil prices this spring, but believes higher prices will boost production and undercut any rally.
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With China, Christopher expects more policy surprises. "A key going forward will be how much stimulus is delivered and whether the central bank returns to yuan depreciation," Christiopher said.
He is also keeping an eye on the primaries.
"As nominations approach, anxiety about possible policy directions from presidential candidates should become more prominent," Christopher said.
The CBOE Volatility Index is up 2 percent during trading.