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Cramer: Europe's shocking turn—1 guy called it

When it comes to stocks, bonds and the economy, Jim Cramer pokes fun at analysts who don't bother to think past next quarter. But when he sees a piece of fantastic research that can really help investors make money, he wants to shout it from the rooftops.

No one called the turn of Europe better than Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management.

Cramer read Cembalest's "Eye on the Market" newsletter in 2015, which discussed a bullish turn on Europe. It pointed out signs that Europe was about to take off, and no one was paying attention, in part because people were sick of hearing about a potential turn, and because of the ongoing soap opera in Greece.





Eiffel Tower, Paris.
Lionet Bonaventure | AFP | Getty Images
"They were dead wrong and he was dead right." -Jim Cramer

One year ago, precisely when almost everyone had given up on the idea that Europe could be saved, Cembalest drilled down on the actions of European central bank President Mario Draghi, and said Europe's economy would turn around.

"If you read other research reports and news stories published at the same time, it is clear that the short-termers and their acolytes in the media weren't seeing it, simply because a very small country, Greece, was grabbing all the headlines," Cramer said.

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Cramer considered Cembalest's predictions brilliant. One year ago the euro hit a low versus the dollar on the FXE, the ETF that reflects the price of the euro against the dollar, and it was at $104. Almost everyone but Cembalest felt a breakdown would occur at that price.

"They were dead wrong, and he was dead right," Cramer said.

So, when earnings are reported next week, Cramer thinks investors will have easy comparisons. Europe has now come back, along with its currency. The U.S. is weaker, and therefore its currency is weaker.

It is the beginning of the end of the reign of the strong dollar. And when earnings are reported, Cramer expects a parade of bumps in estimates on U.S. based international companies, just when analysts were predicting severe declines because of a weakening euro.

"Those of you who are astonished at this turn of good fortune, let me admonish you — there is nothing astonishing here," Cramer said.

It all came down to the detective work of Cembalest, who was able to see it. And it is his prediction of the European recovery that Cramer believes is what's driving so many U.S. based industrials to reach new highs.

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