Jim Cramer is intrigued by many investors' lack of belief in the stock market. They seem to think that prices are too high to be sustainable, or that stocks are up too much for the fundamentals.
Cramer has seen a plethora of reports downgrading consumer-packaged-goods stocks, simply for the reason that they have run so much and it seems like time to take profits.
One of the classic names that research analysts have pegged as overvalued is General Mills, which has run to $64 from $56 in a year's time.
"Do I think General Mills should be at $64? You can look at this stock like I would have if I owned it at my old hedge fund, in which case the answer is yes! But because it went up without me, no!" the "Mad Money" host said.
Cramer thinks the real reason why analyst and hedge fund managers question the rally in General Mills, is because this company is a classic example of a company that is slow, only somewhat steady, has little organic growth, no pizzazz and a very over-stretched valuation.
The main complaint is that just like Kellogg and Campbell Soup, the stock never comes in. Buyers lurk everywhere.
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Meanwhile, these companies buy back stock and raise the dividends. They offer just enough earnings growth to keep the bears at bay.
"It is almost as if there is some invisible floor that governs them and you need a really ugly day to penetrate that floor, one that rarely comes," Cramer said.
So, what should investors looking to own this group do?
Wait for a specific set of events, Cramer said. He recommended waiting for bad news to break in the macro portion of the economy between 9:30 and 10:00 a.m., ET, when the companies cannot buy back stock. The event must not relate to the products that they sell.
"If you get all those circumstances you might just get a buying opportunity, although you can't take the first one because what will happen is that there are now enough momentum guys in these stocks that they will flee on day one and day two," Cramer said.
That means day three is the time to buy consumer staple names.
This is the playbook that Cramer has used for the past year, and it has served him well. He doesn't see it not working any time soon, either.
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