How long it will take the oil market to bounce back is a frequently asked question by energy investors. According to one equity analyst, the answer is looking beyond the coming months.
"I think [there's] very little visibility over the next six months," Kris Kelley of Janus Capital Group said Wednesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." "But I think that if you step out beyond six months, it actually gets very visible."
He contends that as supply comes off the U.S. market, if production reaches 8 to 8 ½ million barrels a day, oil will balance out by the end of the year. Still, investors remain wary that a global production increase may offset any declines in shale supply.
Kelley says, however, that in the short-term span of six months global producers ramping up output can impact market supply, but both OPEC and non-OPEC producers are essentially at peak production, which challenges their ability to continue oversupplying the market a year from now.
"They're not going to be able to raise production to 500,000 or 1 million barrels a day, which is what the world will need to balance supply and demand," Kelley said as he forecast oil trading at $50 to $60 by year-end.