The big S&P prediction that 'no one believes'

The market's massive comeback from February's lows is far from over, according to one technician.

"We're seeing the S&P 500 retesting the downtrend resistance line off of those May highs of last year," Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray said Wednesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

According to Johnson's work, the S&P 500's move above its 200-day moving average, combined with weak volume overall, sets the index up for a major breakout.

"No one believes it, but we think the lows are in for 2016, and we think we're still going to achieve 2,350 by year-end," Johnson said, referring to a level that is 14 percent above Thursday's opening price.

The S&P has bounced around unpredictably since making all-time highs in May, but Johnson has a clear picture of what the future will bring.

"We're bullish, and we believe the market is telling us that, and we want to continue to be long equities at this point," said Johnson.

But other market watchers are a bit more pessimistic about the recent momentum continuing.

Despite the bounce, the S&P 500 "never broke 2,075, and that's a problem," Michael Block of Rhino Trading Partners wrote in note to clients Thursday. On the downside, "that 2,034 to 2,035 level is support write now."

"Enjoy the coil and what follows," Block said.


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Brian Sullivan

Brian Sullivan is co-anchor of CNBC's "Power Lunch" (M-F,1PM-3PM ET), one of the network's longest running programs, as well as the host of the daily investing program "Trading Nation." He is also a frequent guest on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" and other NBC properties.

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