The Trump campaign has parlayed its strength in marketing to a significant lead in pledged delegates. Trump's clearest — likely only — path to the nomination is to arrive in Cleveland with the requisite 1,237 delegates committed to voting for him on the first ballot. If he fails to secure that majority, his weak ground game will then begin to show as he loses delegates on subsequent ballots.
His New York strategy is thus straightforward: win as many votes as possible, wherever possible.
If the polls hold, he will win all 14 of the at-large delegates, and at least two delegates from each of the state's districts. Given his commanding lead in the polls, however, Trump should consider anything short of a clean sweep disappointing.
The Cruz campaign, which boasts a powerful ground game, has been playing the primaries to gain enough delegates to win on the second or third ballot. Cruz is not well-known in New York, and polls suggest that his quip about "New York values" did little to ingratiate him even to New York's Republicans. Still, he has attempted to deploy his quiet microtargeting to play a weak hand well. Cruz's two highest profile stops in the state have been a meeting with black evangelical ministers in the Bronx and a trip to a matzah bakery with Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn.