So if the polls hold and Clinton wins New York by a comfortable margin, the Democratic race will be effectively over, though Sanders is not going to concede and will continue to inflict political damage on the Democratic front-runner. At some point, Sanders will come under heavy pressure from the party to get out of the race. But that won't happen on Tuesday, especially if Sanders shocks the world and makes the race close. If Sanders somehow pulls out a win, the Democratic race will descend into chaos.
On the Republican side, it's all about the district-by-district delegate math. Trump currently leads with 744 delegates to 558 for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 144 for Ohio Governor John Kasich. Kasich still trails Florida Sen. Marco Rubio who has 171 delegates even though he dropped out weeks ago.
Trump hopes to take 85 of the 95 GOP delegates at stake in New York on Tuesday. To do that he will have to top 50 percent statewide and in as many of the state's congressional districts as possible. Kasich and Cruz are hoping to snatch at least a few delegates in New York by keeping Trump below 50 percent, especially in Manhattan.
Every delegates matters for Trump because he has little room for error if he hopes to hit 1,237 delegates and avoid a contested convention in Cleveland. Cruz has dominated Trump in securing friendly delegates so multiple ballots at the convention could strongly favor the conservative Texas senator.
If Trump takes 85 of New York's delegates he would need to win around 57 percent of the remaining delegates to hit his magic number before Cleveland. That is by no means a lock but many of the remaining states in the Northeast favor Trump. And the real estate magnate leads by around 10 percent in most California polls ahead of the June 7 primary. The Golden State, which is among the last to vote, awards most of its 172 delegates to the statewide winner.