US Economy

Why the GDP picture should get brighter in Q2 and beyond

Don't trust GDP numbers: Economist
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Don't trust GDP numbers: Economist

U.S. economic growth looks poised to pick up after a weak first quarter, keeping with the trend of recent years, analysts told CNBC on Thursday.

The Commerce Department is expected to report first quarter GDP growth of 0.7 percent at 8:30 a.m. ET, down from the department's reading of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

Aureus Asset Management Chairman and CEO Karen Firestone said continued dollar strength created headwinds in the first quarter, and earnings were weak as expected. But the outlook for corporate earnings, the labor market and state budgets is improving as the greenback eases off highs and oil prices rebounds from lows, she said.

"If you have a weaker dollar, energy prices are obviously higher, and stable GDP with some consumer spending, you could start to see GDP numbers looking better, so I'd think more about the second half of the year than this quarter," she told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

A customer, left, hands over U.S. twenty dollar bills as she pays for her purchases in Frankfurt, Kentucky.
Weak consumer spending, trade seen hurting US first-quarter growth

But in keeping with the trend of recent years, things look brighter just over the horizon, said IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh. IHS sees second quarter growth at roughly 2.5 percent, he told "Squawk Box."

The inventory cycle stretched into the first quarter, and the overhang from low oil prices continued to drag down capital spending in the energy industry, he said. But Behravesh said he expects the energy capex rout to ease this quarter and dissipate by the third quarter, which will help prospects overseas.

"Not only have oil prices gone up, but currencies have moved up as well. So the pressure is off emerging markets, and that's good news," he said.