Trying to predict the market so far this year is akin to picking winning lottery numbers. Gold and oil surged, the dollar tanked, and stocks have been in and out of correction territory — all as investors look for clues as to when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. For those uncertain as to where to put their money, top technician Carter Worth has a "safe" section of the market to hide.
Real estate investment trusts have been a major beneficiary of low interest rates around the world, which has sent ETFs like the IYR — the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate ETF — surging nearly 20 percent in just the last three months. And as Worth pointed out, with rates on the U.S. 10-year yield in a clear downtrend since the mid-1980s, there's "no real risk of a great move up in rates."
Furthermore, Worth noted that since the bull market began in 2009, REITs have outperformed the S&P 500 7 out of 8 years. "We're talking about an aggregate that's outperforming the market on a consistent basis and on an absolute basis," said Worth, head of technical analysis at Cornerstone Macro. "And day to day, it looks quite good, like it's going to break out."
The IYR has been on a tear of late, rallying to a more than one-year high, and has vastly outperformed the S&P 500 since the February low.
According to Worth, this could be just the start of a massive move higher. "I think this is the beginning of what could be a period of meaningful outperformance," he said. "I like this as a long [trade]. It's a defensive way to play equities in an environment where rates are going nowhere," added Worth.