Hillary could be Trumped more easily than you think

Published Wed, May 11 20163:06 PM EDTUpdated Wed, May 11 20164:27 PM EDT

Patti Domm @in/patti-domm-9224884/@pattidomm

The odds of Hillary Clinton reaching the White House are not as high as they seem, according to new research from The Lindsey Group. The economic advisory firm found several scenarios where the GOP presumptive nominee Donald Trump could end up in a dead heat with or even pull ahead of Clinton, contrary to conventional thinking. There's even a case to be made where voters who view Clinton as a "wicked stepmother" or Trump as "bigoted uncle" could cause an upset by swinging to the Libertarian camp, said Larry Lindsey, CEO of The Lindsey Group. "Conventional wisdom. It's what everyone thinks is going to happen. … This is probably a six or seven point win by Clinton," said Lindsey. "I think it's pretty much what's priced in the market now. I would give odds on this of 45 percent, which is lower than the market." The conventional wisdom that Democrat Clinton could take the White House after a two-term Democratic president also goes against history. "We almost always re-elect our incumbents, and we almost always throw the party out after eight years. This should be a Republican year," Lindsey said. "The only two exceptions were that Jimmy Carter was so bad he couldn't get re-elected, and Reagan was so good he gave his party a third term. If the Republicans were running a generic Republican, this would have been a Republican year," Lindsey said. One factor Lindsey sees as a plus for Trump is the "intensity factor." Voters have turned out in primaries for the nontraditional candidates in both parties: Trump and Sanders. The Lindsey Group studied the primaries for both parties and sees a way that the two candidates could end up with an equal number of electoral votes. "One of the interesting things is the total turnout in the Democratic primaries is down from 2008. That's a kind of negative intensity factor there. You have almost 46 percent of those turning out voting for Sanders," said Lindsey. Voters typically support their party's nominee after the convention, but it's unclear how supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will behave, he said. "The differences between Sanders and Clinton are more than the differences between Clinton and Obama were in '08. It probably works a little bit more for the Republicans," said Lindsey. Trump has generated excitement in the Republican party. "They are turning out for Trump or they could be turning out against Trump," he said. In a scenario where the intensity factor makes a difference, Trump could get more electoral votes than expected and could even tie Clinton. Many millennials might not vote anyway, he said. "If this theory is right, then you are going to see a very, very close election. We couldn't call it exactly, but I think I would probably give Iowa and New Hampshire to Trump and Wisconsin and Virginia to Clinton, and that would produce the odd result of 269 to 269." Lindsey gives the intensity scenario a 35 percent chance. Another factor that could disrupt the expected outcome would be if there were a recession, which could tip the election to Trump. The same would be true of a major domestic terrorism attack. Lindsey gives this scenario 15 percent odds. "The incumbent party does well if the economy is doing well, and so if the economy does poorly this year, or is perceived as doing poorly, the 'throw the bums out vote' goes up, and also the 'let's gamble on Trump' vote. He looks more generic because he's not what we have," said Lindsey. In the event of a foreign attack or military conflict, Clinton might benefit. "That sort of thing wouldn't help Trump and might help Clinton, because she's viewed as having foreign policy experience," he said. But if there is an attack in the U.S., it would be a negative for Clinton. "It goes back to failure of the incumbents and rhetoric. Mrs. Clinton's and Mr. Obama's rhetoric has been for open borders and not as harsh as Trump's on terrorist threats, and if the attack happens here, it will be personal to the voter," he said. A fourth scenario is a surprise surge by the Libertarian candidate. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson has been appealing to Sanders voters, and one of his planks is legalizing marijuana. Johnson is former CEO of Cannabis Sativa. "It's a 5 percent chance … Johnson upsets things so much, Trump wins," said Lindsey. Libertarians are on the ballot in 48 states. "If you get a 23-year-old who doesn't like 'the bigoted uncle' or 'the wicked stepmother,' the third choice is the pot grower. That's not hard at all. You could see your college town falling in line that way," he said. Lindsey said there are states like Colorado and Wisconsin, where Johnson could be popular among Sanders voters. "We've got a lot of Western states where that coalition of your college students and your Libertarian person could actually tip the balance in the state," Lindsey said. He said 63 potential electoral votes of Clinton's and 17 of Trumps could be affected, and surveys show that Johnson would draw more voters from Clinton than Trump. The odds of that are about 5 percent, he said. "Putting personalities aside, a lot of the election will be fought on personality, but in the end, elections are fought on 'four more years,' or 'time for a change.' The second question is, 'If I'm going to vote for change, am I comfortable with the change?'… If the intensity for change goes up, Trump wins. If the view becomes that he's not as risky as he looks, Trump wins," said Lindsey. Lindsey was previously director of the National Economic Council at the White House and was the chief economic adviser to candidate George W. Bush during the 2000 Presidential campaign. He was the the senior economist for Tax Policy at the Council of Economic Advisers during President Reagan's first term.

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump

Jim Urquhart | Reuters

The odds of Hillary Clinton reaching the White House are not as high as they seem, according to new research from The Lindsey Group.

The economic advisory firm found several scenarios where the GOP presumptive nominee Donald Trump could end up in a dead heat with or even pull ahead of Clinton, contrary to conventional thinking.

There's even a case to be made where voters who view Clinton as a "wicked stepmother" or Trump as "bigoted uncle" could cause an upset by swinging to the Libertarian camp, said Larry Lindsey, CEO of The Lindsey Group.