Why history suggests another 11% drop is ahead for plunging Apple

Apple is falling even further down the stock market tree.

The tech giant hit its lowest level since June 2014 on Thursday, as the stock continued its post-earnings slide and fell as low as $89.47.

"That 92-level breakdown, that's now resistance," Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said Thursday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." "You're going to see people break even, people trying to buy at those lows. On the other hand, we see very little support until you get down to the low $80 range. Now that would mark about a 40 percent decline [which we have seen before]."


"What we learned in 2013," when the stock last fell by that amount, is that "you need to wait for this stock to stabilize. We haven't seen it yet, so stay away from [Apple] from now," Wald added.

A drop to $80 would represent a further 11 percent decline from Thursday's closing price.

"We see the stock as being attractively valued, but we would concur with the technical analysis and we would stay on the sidelines as we have as a seller over the last 12 months," Bryn Mawr Trust's chief investment officer, Ernie Cecilia, said Thursday.

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Specifically, he points to Apple's dependence on the iPhone as a limitation for the company.

"We think that Apple has to focus on recurring revenues as opposed to the market being focused on just, if you will, a new innovation — which will just be difficult each time," he said Thursday.

Last year, two-thirds of the tech giant's revenue came from iPhone sales. But Apple failed to meet its first-quarter earnings estimates and reported a revenue drop, causing the stock to plummet.

Disclosure: Cecilia, Cecilia's family, and Cecilia's firm are long Apple. Wald's firm makes a market in Apple shares.


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Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

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