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Odds for interest rate hikes plunge after major jobs report miss

Janet Yellen
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Janet Yellen

The probability for a June rate hike plummeted Friday after a major miss in the May jobs report.

The Labor Department report said U.S. economy added just 38,000 jobs, far below economist estimates of 162,000.

Prior to the jobs report, the CME Group FedWatch tool of market sentiment saw a 21 percent chance of a June rate hike. Those odds dropped as low as 4 percent after the employment report.

Federal Reserve policymakers meet June 14-15 to decide on whether to increase the central bank's key interest rate for only the second time in a decade.

CME's FedWatch tool tracks the target rates based on 30-day fed funds futures contract prices, which are widely considered a reliable indicator of U.S. monetary policy changes.

A reading above 50 percent indicates the market's guess for the next rate hike.

After the Labor Department's report, odds dropped in all months tracked by CME:

  • June: 6 percent chance, down from 21 percent prior to the jobs report.
  • July: 35 percent chance, down from 58 percent
  • September: 47 percent, down from 66 percent
  • November: 50 percent, down from 68 percent
  • December: 67 percent, down from 79 percent
  • February 2017: 69 percent, down from 81 percent