'Clear bear channel' looms for refinery stocks: Trader

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The rise in crude has oil stocks surging this year, but there's one group that hasn't participated in the rally: The refiners.

Shares of Valero, Tesoro and Marathon Petroleum have all fallen double digits in 2016—down 24, 29 and 26 percent respectively. Even worse for investors in those companies, the already dismal returns may lead to even more pain on the horizon, according to one trader.

Andrew Keene, CEO of AlphaShark, sees oil refinery stocks falling in the near future, even as many of them have gained some momentum from the February lows. One stock that could be in the biggest trouble is fuel manufacturer and transporter Valero, which Keene says has been in a steady downtrend since mid-March.

"The oil refiners are headed lower," he said.

Looking at both a daily chart and a weekly chart for Valero, Keene points out that the stock is on a "clear bear channel to the downside" with a downside target at the prior low $52. But Keene believes that Valero can very possibly fall even lower than that key technical level.

"We all know that support becomes resistance, so what I think is going to happen is Valero's going to test that support, not find buyers, and then head to $50," he said on CNBC's "Trading Nation" last week. That's more than 6 percent lower than where the energy stock is currently trading.

To play for a move lower in Valero, Keene is recommended buying the July 52.5/50 put spread, where he buys the July 52.5-strike puts to sell the July 50-strike puts for 70 cents.

Valero hit a year to date low in intraday trading on Friday, reaching $53 and inching closer to Keene's support line of $52.