Federal Reserve

The Fed will aim to put July on the table: JPMorgan portfolio manager

Message from the Fed
Message from the Fed

The Federal Reserve will aim to put a July interest rate hike on the table at the close of its two-day meeting on Wednesday afternoon, JPMorgan Asset Management strategist Phil Camporeale said.

Investors currently put the chances of an interest rate hike in July at 21 percent, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, which measures 30-day Fed Fund futures prices. Expectations for a summer rate hike plummeted earlier this month after the Labor Department reported disappointing job growth for May.

The Fed is not expected to announce a second rate hike in the current tightening cycle on Wednesday. It began raising rates from nearly zero in December.

Despite hawkish statements in minutes from the Fed's April meeting, the odds of a June rate hike never reached 50 percent based on Fed Fund futures trading, Camporeale said. But the July possibility did cross that threshold, and the Fed may try to increase expectations for an increase next month once again, he added.

"You can create a narrative where, even though July is only 16 percent priced in right now, they can get it back to 50, 55 percent based on a Brexit remain vote and based on the further data on claims and on the jobs data that comes out the first week of July, signaling that that June number was more noise than a signal," he told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."

Fed gains nothing by shocking market: Pro
Fed gains nothing by shocking market: Pro

July is still a live meeting, but a lot needs to go right for policymakers to pull the trigger, Bessemer Trust Strategist Joseph Tanious said earlier Wednesday.

In Tanious' view, for markets to expect a July rate hike, Britons must vote next week to remain in the European Union, June's employment report must improve on May's dismal numbers, and China needs to remain stable.

"The Fed gains absolutely nothing by coming out and shocking the markets," Tanious said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box."

A surprise rate hike would impact the markets negatively by injecting volatility and anxiety, he added. If the Fed were to raise interest by a quarter percent, the impact on the real economy however would be "close to nothing," Tanious said.

Still, market considerations may sway the Fed, he said.

"I think one can argue in today's environment the Fed's had a third mandate, which is market expectations and providing market stability," he said.

The Fed is mandated by Congress only to promote maximum employment and stable prices, but some believe the stock market is factoring into the Fed's decision-making these days.

Jim Caron, senior fixed income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley, said Wednesday the real question is how the Fed feels about the market putting the odds of a December rate hike at roughly 50 percent. On Wednesday, the CME FedWatch tool indicated a 58 percent chance.

That expectation puts pressure on the Fed policymakers, who have indicated they expect to raise rates twice this year and have fewer opportunities to do so as the year progresses.

Caron told "Squawk Box" he believes the Fed on Wednesday will reiterate it expects to raise rates twice this year, but revise down its pace of rate hikes for 2017 and 2018 to perhaps three increases per year.