Odds for a July rate hike drop after Fed holds steady

Janet Yellen
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
Janet Yellen

The CME Group FedWatch probability for a July rate hike dropped after the Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for the funds rate on Wednesday.

While the Fed still sees rates at 0.9 percent by the end of 2016, it is now looking for the funds rate to rise to 1.6 percent in 2017, as opposed to the 1.9 percent estimate in March.

Before the announcement, the market estimated a 21 percent chance of a July rate hike, but those odds, which dropped as low as 0 percent, now sit near 10 percent.

Traders tracked by the CME now see about a 26 percent chance of a September rate hike. They sat at a 35 percent chance before the statement.

Thirty-day fed funds futures prices are widely considered a reliable indicator of U.S. monetary policy changes. CME's FedWatch tool tracks the target rates based on fed funds futures contract prices.

A reading above 50 percent indicates the market's guess for the next rate hike.

After the announcement, odds dropped in all months tracked by CME:

  • July: 10 percent chance, down from 21 percent prior to the 2 p.m. ET announcement.
  • September: 26 percent, down from 35 percent
  • November: 27 percent, down from 36 percent
  • December: 45 percent, down from 51 percent
  • February 2017: 48 percent, down from 54 percent