The United States is about one labor market report away from a full change in Federal Reserve policy, Barclays' chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, said Tuesday.
That's because he believes labor market data are the most important signal about expansion and contraction in the U.S.
"You don't make too much about any one report but the trend is awfully weak," Gapen said in an interview with CNBC's "Closing Bell."
"One or two more reports is going to signal something more pernicious and may very well entail a complete turn in the bias."
He believes there is "maybe" a 30 percent chance of a recession over the next four quarters.