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Here's how the Fed could surprise you

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While markets don't believe the Fed will really raise interest rates this year, it could surprise them with at least one hike later in the year.

The Federal Reserve's road to a rate increase is a tough one, with easy money from other global central banks lining the way with possible hazards.

Fed funds futures imply a 40 percent chance of a rate hike this year, and while some economists do see a rate rise, they don't necessarily agree on the timing. One thing they do agree on though is that the Fed is taking the summer off.

The U.S. economy is stronger than others, so why can't the Fed raise rates? One reason is that those central bank easing programs in Europe and Japan work to suppress interest rates and in some cases, intentionally turn them negative.