According to Thomson Reuters, earnings growth for the S&P 500 companies is expected to fall by 4.7 percent in the second quarter, based on expectations and actual reports from the several dozen companies that have reported.
"It's the first quarter after eight of decelerating earnings growth," Adams said. "It's the first quarter where we don't have worsening earnings growth expectations. …Tech was a big part of the miss in the first quarter. If you get much better tech prints, that could be good for the broader market, especially if you get forward forecasts out of the tech and industrial sector that look better."
Analysts are especially watching the multinationals this week to see if there are any comments on how the separation of the U.K. from the European Union could impact their businesses.
"What matters is completely not what companies do on that quarter anymore. It's what happens to the outlook. First quarter was a perfect example. Companies beat by a wide margin, but it didn't matter because companies and analysts alike reduced their expectations for forward growth, and that's what I'm worried about happening this time," she said.
Stocks will also respond to bonds in the week ahead. Yields came off their post-Brexit, record lows in the past week. The 10-year Treasury Friday was yielding 1.60 percent, its highest level since the day after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. It later retreated to 1.54 percent on the Turkish news.
The move up in yields was a bit of a concern to some stock traders, who were also beginning to chatter about how better U.S. data might bring the Fed back in play sooner than the market expects. Odds for a December rate hike were about 50/50 as implied by Fed funds futures on Friday after much better than expected retail sales were up 0.6 percent in June.
"The two things that are most important to me are what happens in earnings season and what's going on in the bond market," said Adams. "Stocks and bonds are highly correlated."
Stocks ran to record highs as bond yields traded near record lows. Investors also rushed into the U.S. credit markets, snapping up high-yield and investment grade corporates as alternatives to lower yielding debt in other parts of the world.
"There's the risk we've priced out all expectations that the Federal Reserve is going to do anything this year, and the market has gotten very comfortable with this idea that we've gotten back to a Goldilocks scenario," said Adams. That's a scenario where the economy is strong enough, yields are low and the Fed is not going to move anytime soon.
But concerns about the Fed can be put aside for another week, and then likely resurface when it meets July 26 and 27. It is not expected to take action at that meeting, but it could send a message that the market would take as hawkish if it says it is sticking to its plan to hike rates this year.
"I think they'll acknowledge the economic data improvement and financial conditions improved, but I doubt they'll seem very hawkish until they let a few months go by," she said.
Stone said stocks could continue to rise in the coming week, but they would be spooked if rates move back up quickly. "You've had a good start to the earnings seasons. You had China come in and not scare people," he said, noting China reported better than expected second-quarter GDP growth of 6.7 percent Friday
Adams said presidential politics will matter in the week ahead but are not likely have too much influence over the market. The Democratic convention is the following week.
"I do think that the conventions are relevant because we will get more information on what the parties'platforms really are. Each candidate has some information out there, but we'll have more solid or detailed information as result of the conventions. They are relevant but the elections will be dismissed for a while longer," said Adams.
At this point, Democrat Hillary Clinton appears to be the front runner. Her policies are more well-known than those of Trump, who has challenged trade deals and has articulated a harsh stance on immigration.
But there are still many details lacking, and analysts have not yet been able to discern as much of what his policy would be. Both candidates are expected to support fiscal stimulus, which would help stocks in sectors that benefit from infrastructure spending.
A Morgan Stanley survey of 650 investors showed that 70 percent of investors expect the election to influence their market outlook over the next two years.
Citigroup analysts wrote this past week that investors view Clinton as more status quo while a Trump presidency would be surrounded by more uncertainty. While there is some belief that he could help the economy short term by slashing taxes and boosting fiscal spending, he could also "sow greater uncertainty and thereby an economic stalling out as business leaders hold off making decisions until they get a better feel for the Trump administration's plans," the Citi analysts wrote.
The election could also impact Treasury yields. John Briggs, head of strategy at RBS, said bond yields could move higher for now but may move back to test low yields again in the fall if investors are concerned around the election.
"I'm worried about the level of uncertainty we're going to face," he said. "I think we'll back up a little bit here, be lower by the fall, but higher by the end of the year."