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Trump or Clinton means 'downside' for equities: HSBC

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

The market has downside risk the rest of the year due to uncertainty over the presidential election and Donald Trump's populist economic plan, according to HSBC Global Research.

"Increased economic policy uncertainty is typical during an election season, but potentially greater this time given the unconventional nature of the Trump candidacy and high levels of global policy uncertainty," HSBC's chief U.S. economist, Kevin Logan, wrote in a note to clients Sunday.

"This could depress investment and boost equity volatility. Simplified U.S. electoral scenarios all show downside to U.S. equities by year-end."

HSBC's report comes as Five Thirty Eight's "now-cast" election model on Monday predicts Trump has 57.5 percent chance to win the presidency, compared with 42.5 percent for Hillary Clinton.

Here are the details of HSBC's four electoral outcomes.