August tends to be a tough month for the market. But even those who fear a late-summer slide might want to reconsider their typical defensive strategy, according to Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald.
The typical play would be to rotate out of more cyclical stocks and overweight the consumer staples, Wald points out, given that the defensive sector has been the best-performing sector in the average August to October period.
However, the hunt for yield has sent investors flying into the high-dividend-paying staples stocks, which may substantially weaken the investment case.
"We think investors are going to have less incentive to rotate out of cyclicals," Wald said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." The typical August trade "is going to be muted this year."
On top of that, wide market breadth suggests that stocks could continue their recent rally, according to the technical analyst.
"Don't time the pullback — buy it," Wald wrote in an email to CNBC. "You want to be invested in this market. We like the breakout in equities."
Others say that the market's run-up to record highs has been overbaked.
"The fundamentals are sort of heading south. We had another lousy quarter in terms of earnings growth, and yet the bid was there, big-time," said Max Wolff, chief economist of Manhattan Venture Partners, Monday on "Trading Nation."
Similar bearish calls have also come from bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach and a Goldman Sachs strategy team.
"Until the growth situation improves, we are not that constructive on equities, particularly after this type of rally," Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote.
