There are a number of headwinds still facing the oil market that could knock crude prices down as low as $35 this year, Morgan Stanley's head of commodity research said Tuesday.
"I don't think we're fully out of the woods yet," Adam Longson said in an interview with CNBC's "Power Lunch."
"The bullish trend we saw early this summer is likely to shift more bearish," he said.
He thinks a mid-$30s soft floor could come from OPEC chatter and short positions in the market. However, he sees oil averaging $40 in the fourth quarter.
Not only is there still an oversupply in the oil market, one of the biggest challenges has been the oversupply in the gasoline market, Longson explained. He believes that ultimately needs to be resolved before there is a real recovery.
"A refiner is the real consumer of crude oil, not you and I, and I think that will be our catalyst," he said.
The good news is Longson believes the oil market will rebalance by the middle of 2017.
Meanwhile, it isn't all gloom and doom for U.S. producers, whose budgets have been hit by low oil prices. Some have said they will be able to grow and add rigs at $50 oil, he noted.
"It really is the differentiation between haves and have-nots and a race to improve your cost structure," said Longson. "I think that many, many of the U.S. companies will ultimately be fine and come out winners on the back end of this."
U.S. crude closed down 25 cents, or 0.58 percent, at $42.77 a barrel Tuesday.
— CNBC's Stefanie Kratter contributed to this report.