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Here's why OPEC is irrelevant and crude’s going higher: Trader

To freeze or not to freeze — that is the question oil watchers want to know.

In April OPEC hinted that a production freeze was coming and, for weeks leading up, investors collectively wrung their hands in advance of a decision.

Of course, the cartel failed to reach an agreement and member nations continued producing oil at record levels. Now, as OPEC plans to hold an informal meeting in September, one trader remains bullish on crude regardless of any sort of deal being reached.

"I actually think positioning was overly bearish," noted a skeptical Tim Seymour in a special "Behind the Trade" session.

The CNBC "Fast Money" trader illustrated that, while oil has been in a bear market during the past month, investors have bought into the commodity amid oversold conditions during the past week leading to gains of 8 percent.

Furthermore, he believes that the setup for higher oil prices can be credited to the notion that the global economy is significantly stronger. Namely, the Brexit vote failed to shake markets as many investors predicted it would and volume has remained high during the summer, which historically represents slower months for traders.

Seymour also noted that the traditional relationship between crude and the dollar has begun to break down. "Oil and the dollar, historically, have been negatively correlated. When oil was getting hammered, the dollar was spiking. The key is that in the last couple of days, they are trading together."


From here, Seymour reasoned that while gains for the dollar are likely capped at $100, oil has room to run and will likely settle in the $50 range.

"This correlation is a long-term trend that I think is breaking down," he concluded. "Oil goes higher from here."

Year to date oil is up 16 percent and has gained 6.5 percent since April's OPEC meeting in Doha, Qatar.