Statistician Nate Silver sees Clinton with 86% chance of winning

Latest poll shows 1 in 5 Republicans want Trump to drop race
Latest poll shows 1 in 5 Republicans want Trump to drop race

Hillary Clinton holds a seemingly insurmountable advantage over Donald Trump in the presidential race, according to one prominent forecaster's analysis.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website this week put Clinton's chances of victory at the highest they've ever been. On Monday, the probability of the Democrat winning had reached 96.4 percent and was at 86.3 percent Wednesday during a volatile and eventful week for the campaign.

Silver, renowned in political circles for correctly calling 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 election and every state in 2012, has been less prescient in this year's presidential race. Just before the start of primary season, Silver had been giving Trump just a 13 percent chance of being the Republican nominee. (As it became clear Trump was going to be the GOP standard-bearer, Silver issued this confessional of where FiveThirtyEight went wrong, and pointed out that the site has called correctly nearly every vote it has covered this year.)

Silver also is known for his in-depth baseball analysis that resulted in the introduction of multiple new metrics to evaluate the game.

The Clinton-Trump results come from the site's "now-cast" of "who could win an election today" using an election simulator. The site has two other predictors: a "polls-plus" forecast that combines polling along with economic and historical data. That puts Clinton's chances at 74.9 percent. A "polls-only" forecast, which, as its name implies, focuses just on polling data, has Clinton at 84.7 percent.

The now-cast sees Clinton with a 7.1-point edge in popular vote (48.9-41.8 percent). That is close to the Real Clear Politics poll average, which has the former first lady and secretary of state holding a 7.7-point lead.

In addition to the wide popular vote edge, the site figures Clinton to win 354 electoral votes to Trump's 183, putting her well over the required 270 to win. (Libertarian hopeful Gary Johnson gets 0.5)

The site rates virtually every battleground state breaking Clinton's way. Florida is given the greatest possibility of tipping the election, and Clinton holds a 3.3-point edge there. Ohio and Pennsylvania are next in order of importance, with Clinton enjoying respective 3.3- and 7.5-point margins.

Wall Street has been banking on a Clinton victory. Wagering on predictions market site PredictIt points to a 76 percent chance of her winning, while the finance industry has funneled $41.4 million to her campaign.

The Clinton and Trump campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.