Trading Nation

Apple could be set for a 15% surge: Trader

Trading Nation: More upside for Apple?

Traders with an eye on Apple may wonder when one of the biggest companies in the world may become over-bought.

Tech behemoth Apple just hit highs not seen since April. This comes as Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway upped its stake in Apple by 55 percent as of June 30.

And one trader says some upside, perhaps over 14 percent, could be in store.

"Below 100 bucks, you buy this stock, and I think you can trade it up, and you can trade it in a range of $100 to $125," said David Seaburg, head of equity sales trading at Cowen & Co. "I really believe it's a buy."

The high end of that range would be about 14.3 percent higher than Tuesday's closing price of $109.38.

But Seaburg has a caveat. He believes Buffett bought Apple at "the sweet spot," and says he is rather bullish at these levels, but would be wary of the stock becoming too rich.

Seaburg added Tuesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch" that investors may want to own Apple going into 2017, citing expectations about a new iPhone hitting the market — an "upgrade cycle that's going to facilitate a little bit of a move higher."

"But again, at that $125 level, I'd be a seller of the stock," said Seaburg.

Apple has experienced several hills and valleys this year, with a year-to-date closing high of $112.10 and a low of $90.32 in May. That sell-off came amid investors' concerns about sales of the iPhone 7, which have yet to hit the shelves.

And one often-bearish strategist says Apple has recently become a "crowded" trade.

"Near term, it's extremely over-bought, and if you look at the new ownership of Apple, the last nine months, you've got about 52 million shares that were purchased by central banks and sovereign wealth funds reaching for yield," said Larry McDonald, global head of macro strategy at ACG Analytics.

"There's a premium Apple that's been bid up because of the dividend," he said.

This worries McDonald, who says these trends remind him of the 1990s:

"The dividend-producing investors or asset managers are the heroes today. That's the sign of an extremely crowded trade, and it's something I think you want to fade."