Nomura expects a final, 25 basis-point rate cut for the last three months of the year, based on estimated sub-5 percent inflation readings. But because two of the six MPC members—Urjit Patel and Michael Patra—were on the hawkish side and given the governor had the deciding vote, Nomura reduced the probability of easing to 55 percent from 65 percent.
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) echoed those sentiments.
"As the architect of India's inflation-targeting mechanism, and given his recent speeches, our read is he is likely to have a slightly hawkish bias in the short-term. This may see the market move some of the rate cuts further along the curve," said Vaninder Singh, Asia economist at RBS.
Mizuho, meanwhile, warned that consumer prices would have to drop significantly after rising at a faster-than-expected annual pace of 6.07 percent last month, up from June's 5.77 percent, in order for more easing to happen.
"Patel's preference for appropriately positive real rates rates (1.5 to 2 percent) suggests that inflation needs to subside substantially from around 6 percent before the policy rate may be reduced from 6.5 percent," Vishnu Varathan, a senior economist at Mizuho Bank, said.
Calling the new governor "fiscally conservative," Nomura also noted that Patel may be cautious about opening up debt markets to foreign investors. At present, foreign investors are allowed to own $51 billion of corporate bonds.
Patel's personality also sets him apart from his predecessor.
Rajan was an outspoken critic of the government's management of social issues, particularly crony capitalism, police corruption and religious violence, which often resulted in tensions with conservative members of Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Patel on the other hand has maintained a low profile throughout his years at the RBI, and is expected to keep a quieter style of communication, Nomura said.
DBS economist Radhika Rao agreed.
"Notably, as a Deputy Governor Dr. Patel has only occasionally aired his views in public. With the new appointment, the markets will look for clear and frequent communication on policy and other related issues," she said.
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