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History says this bull market could take a break and then roar on

Bull Pamplona Spain
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Investors who have nostalgia for the early 1980s and even the 1950s may take heart from one technical factor that RBC says is a strong bullish sign for stocks, even as the S&P 500 challenges its all-time highs.

"The bigger picture continues to look like a much bigger market cycle recovering from the February lows, very consistent with a new leg up in the bull market, and we think it has quite a ways to run," said Robert Sluymer, technical analyst and managing director at RBC.

"The bias is higher. We could see it ending the year at 2,350," he said of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 was trading around its closing high of 2,190 Tuesday, and has been taking aim at its all-time high above 2193.81.

The technician concedes there is seasonal risk as the market often runs into turbulence at this time of year and in the fall.

"Whatever near-term volatility we get over the next couple of weeks, we can get over in September and October. We think it's generally going to be shallow, if it happens at all. We think the bias is higher," said Sluymer.

He said the market has a scope and a breadth it hasn't seen for a long time, and it appears that the technical metrics he watches are working, even as many investors remain soured on the market and doubt its ability to continue to advance from new highs.

Here's what Sluymer said has given him conviction the market will move sharply higher.