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– This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on July 7, Thursday.
Welcome to CNBC Business Daily, I'm Qian Chen.
Out of three things the Federal Reserve says it needs to raise rates, one is virtually guaranteed not to happen any time soon.
It's hurry-up-and-wait time at the Federal Reserve.
U.S. central bank officials need three things in order to substantively consider hiking interest rates for the first time in 2016, they explained in meeting minutes issued Wednesday: confirmation that growth is picking up, jobs gains that are sufficient, and inflation that's rising to a target pegged by several economists at 2 percent.
Two of these things are iffy, in terms of their immediate prospects, and one is downright unlikely. U.S. inflation flagged in the wake of the global financial crisis and has been well short of 2 percent.
Economic data and jobs numbers may not match Fed expectations either. It doesn't seem as if the Fed can raise rates, at least not in its meeting later this month, and probably not at all this year.
At least, that's what the market sentiment is.
[RANDY KROSZNER, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Professor Of Economics] "Given the uncertainties thats there, certainly anything could happen, but I think it's highly unlikely. There's very little wage pressure that we are seeing in the US, we are seeing very little inflation pressure, and inflation expectation has been moving down rather than moving up, and given the uncertainty, I don't think it will result anytime soon with repect to UK and Europe. I don't see the Fed is gonna move, probably not before the fall, most likely not until next year."
The CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks market sentiment about the probability of a Federal Open Market Committee rate hike, effectively resigned itself to the expectation that there will be no July hike. But market watchers have come around to realize that monetary policy crafted to steer U.S. banks away from collapse have become the norm - and the lingering issue is if, or when, the FOMC can depart from the new normal.
Another key focal point for the Fed - economic data - will be coming in the form of spending, manufacturing and other important points in the next few weeks and leading up to September, which is the next time after July that the FOMC will be able to consider hiking rates.
CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.