Apple probably won't end up paying all of its massive Irish tax bill: Analyst

Analyst on Apple tax ruling: More negative noise than anything substantial

The European Union's $14.5 billion tax ruling against Apple won't substantially impact the U.S. tech giant's bottom line, an expert told CNBC on Tuesday.

The European Commission on Tuesday ordered the Irish government to claw back up to that amount, plus interest, in back taxes from Apple. Ireland and Apple vowed to appeal the ruling.

"What's odd here is that the EC has demanded Apple pay Ireland. And Ireland is on Apple's side," said wireless analyst Will Power of Robert W. Baird & Co.

Apple would likely ended up paying less than the headline number in back taxes, either due to an appeal or a settlement, Power told "Squawk Box." "Anything it ultimately pays is probably less but probably a ways off."

Power points out that Apple has $200 billion in cash on the books. So he said the tax bite at the higher end of the expected range is more "negative noise" than a "substantial" negative for the business.

Another stat to keep in mind, Power said, is that Apple has had some quarters when it's generated more than $14 billion in earnings in a single three-month period.

The biggest story for Apple going forward is the next iPhone, Power said. The iPhone 7 is expected to be unveiled at what Apple is calling a "major product event" scheduled for Sept. 7.

"The device has been panned by financial community [and] the general press for months now. So I think expectations are low; hopefully sufficiently low, we'll see," Power said.

"This is a stock that is difficult to trade around these [product] cycles. So you've got to be committed to holding the stock longer term," he said.

Power is looking for "flatitsh sales" year over year heading into fiscal year 2017, with a stock price target over the next 12 months of $115 per share. The stock closed at $106.82 per share on Monday.

"We've had concerns near term, given the iPhone demand questions [and] global macro issues," he said. But longer term, he sees a compelling case for owning Apple. "The stock does fine from these levels."

Disclosure: Power and/or his family does not own Apple stock. Apple is an investment banking client of Robert W. Baird & Co., which also makes a market in the securities of Apple.