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Pro Analysis

Stocks sees election closer than do polls: Strategas

Voting poll entrance
Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Wall Street believes the U.S. presidential race is a lot closer than what the polls show, Strategas Research Partners told clients on Tuesday, highlighting the outperformance of the firm's proprietary Republican stock portfolio.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads in every poll by a significant margin over her Republican opponent Donald Trump. That lead, however, is not reflected in the firm's Democratic portfolio, which is underperforming by 6 percent since the FBI issued a report on Clinton's email on July 5, according to Daniel Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Partners.

"The Republican portfolio has continued to outperform even with Trump imploding in early August," he said. "Is this the market thinking maybe there could be more pay to play details coming out on Clinton that ultimately derail her candidacy?"