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Goldman Sachs' asset allocation strategy team has turned bearish on the near-term outlook for bonds, cutting the asset class to "underweight", while sticking to its recommendation to hold cash in portfolios given the risk of shocks and high valuations across markets.
Disappointing economic data and the global bond sell-off since last week have seen a reversal of the "Goldilocks" summer rally, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note to clients, adding that risks remain skewed to the downside over the next three months.
While the bank upgraded its view on equities to "neutral", it said it was moving the U.S. S&P 500 and Europe's STOXX 600 equity indexes to "underweight", adding that Asia was its preferred stock market.
Rising positive correlations between equities and bonds are hurting asset allocation, Goldman said, with risk parity and balanced funds feeling the pain the most. Goldman added that sensitivity to U.S. 10-year yields across assets is close to its highest levels since the 1990s.
"Equities rallying alongside bonds due to a strong search for yield increases vulnerability and risks inflating valuations," said the analysts.