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If Bill Gross is right about the Fed, then the rest of the market is terribly wrong.
The bond guru and portfolio manager at Janus Capital Management believes there's a coin-flip chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will vote to raise its interest rate target when this month's meeting concludes Wednesday.
Gross made the stunning prediction through the firm's Twitter account Tuesday afternoon.
If that happens, it will come as a shock to investors.
Traders currently are pricing in just an 18-percent chance of a move this week that would take the overnight funds rate's target up a quarter-point from the current 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent range, according to the CME's tracking tool. That is an increase from Monday's 12 percent, but still only a remote chance.
The chance of a move at the November meeting is just 23.1 percent, though December has a 59.8 percent probability of being the Fed's first hike since December 2015 and only the second such move in more than 10 years.
Most Fed followers on Twitter weren't buying Gross' prediction:
Gross lately has been advising investors to dump both stocks and bonds and has criticized central bank policy, saying that near-zero and negative rates are crushing returns. He favors real estate and gold.
His $1.5 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond fund is up 4.6 percent year to date, placing it in the top third of its peers.