Political analysts at Citi led by the bank's Chief Global Political Analyst Tina Fordham said in a note on Sunday that the narrowing of the polls at this stage of the campaign was "typical" yet she warned that Clinton could suffer from what she called an "enthusiasm gap."
Despite having a loyal following of Democratic voters, Clinton does not enjoy the broad appeal of her former boss, President Barack Obama, and she could suffer from apathy among voters who might lean toward a Democratic vote but aren't overly enthusiastic about Clinton herself.
Meanwhile, as divisive as Trump is for American voters, he has a robust following certain to make their dissatisfaction with the political status quo known come November.
Fordham and her colleagues, Graham Bishop, Jeremy Hale, Tiia Lehto and Dana Peterson, said in their "U.S. election countdown" note that Trump voters were "significantly more likely to say they intend to vote."
"Narrowing of polls is typical of this stage of the campaign, yet in the wake of Brexit and heightened Vox Populi risk in Advanced Economies plus concerns that polling methods may not capture marginalized voters, we reduce the probability of a Clinton victory to 60 percent from 65 percent, with a 40 percent probability of a Trump win. Hillary Clinton still has a much more mathematically straightforward path to victory in the Electoral College vote, but suffers from an "enthusiasm gap" that may affect support at the polls on November 8th, with Trump voters significantly more likely to say they intend to vote."
The Citi team also highlighted "a range of sub-indicators historically correlated with predicting presidential outcomes. Improvements in the economy, Obama's approval ratings and support from college-educated voters support Clinton, while voters with low trust in the political system and confidence in the U.S. economy support Trump."