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The national debt would surge under a Donald Trump presidency, though not as much as originally thought, according to a new analysis.
Trump's stated plans to stimulate the economy through the building of infrastructure, boosting military spending and making sharp tax cuts would increase the national IOU by $5.3 trillion, or roughly 26 times more than Hillary Clinton's plan would, according to a report Thursday from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
While that's a considerable jump, it's down from the previous estimate of an $11.5 trillion debt increase that the committee projected in June. Many economists have put the Trump debt price tag in excess of $10 trillion, but the committee said a review of more detailed proposals from the Republican nominee show less of an increase.
The estimate for Trump is sharply higher than the analysis of Clinton's plans, which are projected to increase the debt by $200 billion, down from the $250 billion June estimate. While Clinton is calling for aggressive new spending programs, she also is proposing offsetting hikes on estates, investments and financial institution taxes, among others.
The two candidates are locked in a tight battle, with the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showing Clinton ahead by 6 points.
For Trump, the committee said his new plans show less aggressive spending and tax cuts than previously. For Clinton, the committee found that she now has more ambitious revenue programs than she had before, though they could be offset by unspecified plans for business tax reform.
Both projections are for the impact 10 years down the road. In percentage terms, neither would come close to the debt expansion during President Barack Obama's two terms.
Under Obama, the debt has ballooned from $10.6 trillion to $19.5 trillion, $14.1 trillion of which is held by the public, putting the president on track to increase the level by almost more than all his predecessors combined.
"We are encouraged that Clinton continues to largely pay for her new spending and that Trump has made substantial improvements to his plan, including a less costly tax plan and new spending cuts," the committee said in a statement.
"Unfortunately, neither candidate has presented a proposal to address our growing national debt and put it on a more sustainable path, nor have they offered a proposal for shoring up the Social Security, Medicare, or highway trust funds," it added.
Representatives for the two candidates did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The CRFB is a bipartisan panel made of former policymakers and legislators looking to bring down the national debt and deficits. Some prominent members include former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, former White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker.