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Speaking hours before the first one-on-one debate between Trump and Clinton, Fallon downplayed Trump's recent surge in the polls by pointing out that Clinton's lead in August was due to a post-convention bump and Trump's self-inflicted wounds after he criticized the Muslim family of a slain U.S. soldier.
"Now you are seeing the race reset to its natural equilibrium. This is a very polarized country, and it is the rule rather than the exception for presidential contests to be extremely tight," Fallon said in an interview with "Power Lunch. "
A new poll from Bloomberg shows Trump leading Clinton by 2 points. Other polls have Clinton with a slight edge.
Clinton leads her Republican rival by just 1.5 points, according to a Real Clear Politics poll average, down from 2.4 points a day ago.
According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, Clinton leads Trump 46 percent to 44 percent. And in a Quinnipiac University national poll out Monday, Clinton has the support of 44 percent of likely voters, while Trump stands at 43 percent.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has been preparing for multiple versions of Donald Trump ahead of Monday night's debate. However, Fallon is betting a more subdued Trump shows up.
"But it's been a year and a half now of this campaign. We have seen Donald Trump for who he really is. He is that bombastic, erratic person that we can't trust to have the temperament to be commander in chief," Fallon said. "But I bet you his advisors are trying to show a different side of him tonight."
That said, he cautioned that can't be the bar for Trump's success.
"He needs to be detailed on policy and he needs to level with the American people," he insisted.
As far as Clinton is concerned, Fallon said she is going to take this unfiltered opportunity to communicate her vision.
"I think goal number one, two and three tonight is to be positive and take her affirmative message to the public about what she wants to do in terms of the future of the country," he said.
When questioned about why there is a lack of trust with Clinton, Fallon said Clinton has sometimes been targeted with untrue allegations, but said even Clinton has acknowledged that she can do a better job communicating.
"She has said pretty frankly that when it comes to public service, the public aspect of it always comes less easily or less naturally to her than the service part," said Fallon.
— CNBC's Katie Little contributed to this report.