With the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan rate decisions out of the way last week, focus could now shift to something else. Like the expected weaker US Durable Goods Orders (out Tuesday, and according to Credit Suisse, set to drop to -2.3 percent in August compared to 4.4 percent in July), or the oil ministers meeting in Algeria, where speculation is rife that we could see some type of a deal between members and non-members of oil-producing cartel OPEC to curb output.
On the data? Nobody cares about durable goods, or any other piece of data, these days – apart from jobless data, of course. We expect that the global, and domestic, environment will continue down a slow- or no-growth path... anything else would just be a bonus. But the data points, apart from if they're absolutely atrocious, aren't going to change the Fed's thinking. We are still on course for a hike by the end of the year.
On the Algeria OPEC meeting? They won't agree to a curb in production. I will bet anybody an amazing cup of coffee. Sure, the Saudis have offered to cut their oil production…but only IF Iran also says it will cap its output.