Chinese officials are expected to be in Washington this week to hold consultations with the U.S. ahead of high-level trade talks in October.World Economyread more
The ballot comes at a precarious time for the country's longest serving prime minister, with the right-wing incumbent facing formidable challenges.World Politicsread more
Saudi Arabia's defense spending is the world's third-largest — behind the U.S. and China, says Gary Grappo, former U.S. ambassador to Oman.Energyread more
President Donald Trump said Monday he's in no rush to respond to a coordinated attack that hit Saudi Arabia's oil industry over the weekend.Marketsread more
The price of oil could go sharply higher, depending on the duration of the disruption at Saudi oil facilities and whether there is a military response.Powering the Futureread more
Energy stocks, one of the worst-performing sectors this year, spiked Monday after an attack on Saudi Arabia's heart of oil production Saturday sent oil prices soaring.Marketsread more
The Saudi-led military coalition battling Yemen's Houthi movement said on Monday that the attack on Saudi oil plants was carried out by Iranian weapons and did not originate...Oilread more
After a series of setbacks on the road to an initial public offering, the parent company of real estate start-up WeWork is delaying the move, sources told CNBC Monday.Technologyread more
"The United States military, with our interagency team, is working with our partners to address this unprecedented attack and defend the international rules-based order that...Politicsread more
Crude oil's spike following attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy supply has experts weighing whether or not the gains will last.ETF Edgeread more
"In the old days, the averages would've plunged on this kind of oil shock. I know because I've lived through a bunch of them, starting in 1973," Jim Cramer says.Mad Money with Jim Cramerread more
The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of short-term volatility, has fallen over 20 percent so far this year. But if history serves as a guide, that could be about to change.
Historically, October has been a volatile month for stocks during an election year. Since 1992, the CBOE Volatility Index has risen in each of the six presidential-year Octobers, spiking an average 21 percent. For context, all other nonelection-year Octobers since 1990 paint a calmer picture, with the VIX trading down 60 percent of the time and actually declining by an average of 5 percent.
To be sure, October 2008 skews the results quite a bit, when the VIX soared over 50 percent during the financial crisis. Excluding 2008, the average CBOE Volatility Index moved higher by an average of 15 percent, but still traded positively 100 percent of the time, with the S&P returning an average of just 0.34 percent during that same period.
Not surprisingly, the defensive consumer staples sector performed best in those election-year Octobers, trading positively 60 percent of the time, with an average return of 2.3 percent. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Clorox (CLX) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL) were the best-performing stocks within the sector, returning 11.6 percent, 6.6 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively.
Financials were next, gaining 2.2 percent on average, trading positively 80 percent of the time. Within the sector, Progressive (PGR) took the top spot gaining 16.2 percent during that period, with BlackRock (BLK) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) rising 12.3 percent and 9 percent on average, respectively.
On the flip side, technology has historically been the worst performer in election-year Octobers, trading down 1.4 percent on average. Within the group, Western Union found itself at the bottom, down an average of 30 percent. Xerox logged the second-worst performance with an average loss of 15.9 percent.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, big moves in health care could also be on the horizon. Goldman Sachs released a note last week forecasting a spike in volatility within the health care sector. Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at Convergex, supported that call, saying health care sector volatility could double and still be within the normal range for this period.
"If you look at the VIX of the health care group, it's currently running around 12 percent, very low levels and near the lows of the last 12 months. And if you go back to last October, it was 30 percent," he said.
Overall, this time around should be no different. With just six weeks to go until the Nov. 8 presidential election, traders have started to position themselves for a spike in uncertainty. Daniel Deming, money manager with KKM Financial, said, "You've seen a tremendous amount of activity in out-of-the money calls in the VIX for the month of October. There's significant demand for what could be perceived as disaster insurance should the market show any major sign of weakness."
Disclosure: CNBC's parent, NBC Universal, holds a minority stake in Kensho