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Donald Trump to favor in polls in mid-October market drop: McClellan Report

A big drop in the stock market in mid-October should mean a swing toward GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump in presidential election polls, according to technical analyst Tom McClellan.

The path of Dow Jones industrial average gives us clues for what the presidential election poll numbers are going to do, the editor of The McClellan Market Report explained on Monday, which he says has predicted the outcome of the past four presidential elections.

"And when I say the poll numbers, I'm talking about the differential between [Hillary] Clinton and Trump," McClellan said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."

He continued, "If we have an up market, that tends to benefit the incumbent or the incumbent party. We have a down market ... that shows dissatisfaction with the current life state and that tends to favor the challenger party. We're seeing that again this year."

Source: The McClellan Market Report

McClellan said in the last two weeks the markets have been chopping sideways, and therefore he sees poll numbers chopping sideways in the next one to two weeks. He added that the election is too close to call at this point.

As of Monday, A Real Clear Politics average of national polls show Clinton in a 3 percentage point lead against Trump, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

A drop in the stock market should mean favor toward Donald Trump in polls, Tom McClellan said. Source: The McClellan Market Report

A Fox News survey released Friday shows Clinton with 43 percent support among likely voters compared to Trump's 40 percent in a four-way race. The Democratic nominee's lead is right on the poll's 3-point margin of error.