– This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on August 26, Friday.
Welcome to CNBC Business Daily, I'm Qian Chen.
The risk to markets Friday is that Fed Chair Janet Yellen simply sounds more ready than markets expect to raise rates for the second time in 10 years.
That would trigger a sell-off in stocks, snap Treasury yields out of their slumber, pressure gold and pound on the dollar.
But many strategists and economists say more likely is that she will sound dovish, and the reason may be that she will choose to address a more wonky academic question about long-term Fed policy rather than talk about what the markets want to hear.
At the same time, the Fed's mixed messages, internal conflicts and pondering of longer-term issues have confused markets, and if she doesn't sound more confident on the economy, that may also create a backlash in the markets.
The Fed has said it could raise rates twice this year, but the market barely expects one hike, at its December meeting.
The speech at Jackson Hole is perhaps one of the more widely anticipated chairman speeches outside of the financial crisis for the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium.
It comes at a difficult time for the central bank, a time when market participants question the credibility of the Fed and doubt that global central bankers have any more fire power to fix the global economy. It's also a tricky time for the Fed, which could also easily find itself a political football during a contentious election year.
The topic of the conference is "Designing resilient monetary policy frameworks for the future" and Yellen's specific topic is, "The Federal Reserve's monetary policy toolkit." The Fed chair is expected to walk carefully between a dialogue about the Fed's policy tools and the current economic environment without tilting toward any current policy discussion. Yellen's speech will not be televised, nor is she expected to take questions following it.
Stocks Thursday were lower, with the S&P 500 down 2 points to 2,172. The dollar was lower against a basket of currencies, and Treasury yields rose across the curve, most prominently at the lower end. The two-year was at 0.78 percent, and it is the most reflective of Fed rate hike expectations.
CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.