Economy

Federal Reserve risks getting behind curve: Analyst

US equity market is still fragile: Head of strategy
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US equity market is still fragile: Head of strategy

The Federal Reserve is running the risk of letting the U.S. economy run away from its control, according to one analyst. 

The Fed indicated Friday that it could to let inflation run hot for a while when Chair Janet Yellen said it was useful to consider the benefits of a "high-pressure economy." 

However Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy at Saxo Bank told CNBC Monday that the central bank risks getting increasingly behind the curve.

"I think we are at an in-flexion point that if wages come a bit higher in the US, suddenly we will have a different dynamics in the inflation and surely they [Fed] will get a little bit behind because If you take the current inflation data at hand and compare them to current yields in the U.S. you actually have pretty negative rates in the United States," he said.

Garnry also claimed he saw strong evidence of wage inflation in the United States.

"If you look at the wage data, you are seeing more bottlenecks in the different industries and you can see wages are now really at the highest levels in multiple years," he said.


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Garny argued that there are some inflation data that Fed should look at as they are  actually much stronger than they numbers they do consider.

"It is almost only the PCE [Personal consumption expenditure] core year-on-year, which is the only measure the Fed uses for where inflation is, that is behind the curve.

"All the other inflation metrics are between 2 and 2.7 percent year-on-year," Garnry said.

The equity strategist also said if the oil price moves higher, you will see additional inflation pressure from the commodity space.

Traders currently believe there's about a 65 percent chance the Federal Reserve will hike rates in December.