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Trump's Battleground Map Makes Rosy Assessments of Toss-Up States

Carrie Dann
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump
Drew Angerer | Getty Images

A new memo released by Donald Trump's campaign shows how his team hopes to compete in toss-up battleground states in the waning weeks of the 2016 election. But the Trump team's battleground map is far more optimistic than assessments by almost all outside experts, including NBC News.

Trump's campaign lists a total of 12 tossup states: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Maine.

By that assessment, Trump's team says they have 191 electoral votes, compared to 197 for Clinton and 150 in the toss-up column.

In a memo to supporters, campaign manager Kellyanne Conway wrote that polls over the last month have shown Trump's campaign leading in six of those states: Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina.

Conway's assessment of several of those states is far rosier than public polling would suggest.

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NBC News characterizes Florida, Ohio, Nevada and Iowa as pure toss-up states. But states like Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan are all considered by NBC News and others to be trending significantly in Clinton's favor. No widely recognized poll has shown Trump with a lead in North Carolina in the last month, for example. And only one of Maine's electoral votes are seriously considered to be up for grabs.

Trump's map also assumes that red states like Georgia, Arizona and Missouri are locked in for the GOP nominee, even as polling has shown tight races in those states. NBC News characterizes Georgia, Arizona and Utah as toss-up races at this stage of the race.

Here's what Trump's map looks like:

And here's the latest battleground map from NBC News.