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How much Apple shares usually rise a week after earnings beat

People buying new Apple iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus phones
Sergei Fadeichev | TASS | Getty Images
People buying new Apple iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus phones

Apple's earnings rarely miss estimates and the company's shares usually rise one week later, according to historical analysis using Kensho.

The iPhone maker's earnings have beat expectations in 23 out of the last 27 quarters. One week following those better-than-expected results, Apple's shares have traded positive about two-thirds of the time with an average return of 2.19 percent, Kensho analysis showed.

Gains in Apple's shares have also tended to lift the SPDR Technology ETF (XLK). The ETF traded positive about two-thirds of the time with an average gain of 0.64 percent in the week after Apple's earnings beat, according to Kensho. The S&P 500 rose an average 0.35 percent over that period but with positive trades only 57 percent of the time, slightly better than the chances of a coin flip.

But on the day immediately following Apple's earnings, the stock price has reacted more to iPhone sales than earnings beats or misses. In January 2013, Apple reported earnings and revenue above estimates, but shares fell 12.35 percent after iPhone sales missed expectations.

After the close Tuesday, Apple is expected to report a third-straight quarter of year-over-year declines in iPhone sales, according to StreetAccount estimates. Earnings are expected to come in at $1.65 per share on revenue of $46.9 billion, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

When Apple's earnings miss — just 4 times in the last six years — the stock always falls the following day and only once had a positive return in the following week, according to Kensho.

— CNBC's Gina Francolla and George Manessis contributed to this report.

Disclosure: CNBC's parent NBCUniversal is a minority stakeholder in Kensho.