I also question whether Trump can win given his unpopularity with minorities. He needs an almost impossible percentage of non-minority Republican voters to offset the loss.
Moreover, independents are 42 percent of the electorate, the highest ever polled, and a key swing factor this year. That percentage dwarfs the 29 percent for registered Democrats and 26 percent for registered Republicans, and likely will decide the election.
Trump needs a lopsided majority of independents to have a shot at winning, and his ability to resonate with these voters, particularly with women, was never strong and now appears to have all but vanished with the release of a well-publicized lewd video and subsequent multiple accusations of sexual misconduct.
Thus, given all these factors, the election, even if the stock market stays negative for August, September and October, seems to be all but decided in Clinton's favor.
For investors, a Clinton presidency likely would be positive for hospital stocks but depress pharmaceutical and biotech stocks. Infrastructure and defense stocks have been strong in advance of the election given that they appear to be beneficiaries of increased spending regardless of who takes office.
Alternative energy is a clear winner given Clinton's commitment to substantially increase the installation of solar panels. She also has singled out coal as a relic. Meanwhile, banks are a question mark. There's been lots of tough talk, but it's questionable whether Clinton would make the regulatory environment worse. The coming moves in interest rates likely will have more impact on the direction of bank stocks than a Clinton win.
In short, Clinton is a known commodity, and that makes markets comfortable. Plus, the economy appears to have more room to run in 2017, so the stock market should follow.
If there is a plot twist in this election scenario, it could come from down-ballot races.
Most polling also suggests that the House is secure in its Republican majority even on the heels of the recent Trump-induced tarnishing of the party; the ability of the Democrats to pick up 30 House seats is remote. But the Senate certainly is up for grabs.
Our best guess, at this point, is for a Democratic president, a Republican House, and a Democratic Senate, which, historically, has been a supportive mix for the markets. Wall Street likes checks and balances in Washington.
Conversely, an unlikely sweep by the Democrats would probably send stocks tumbling.
Commentary by Debra Silversmith, the chief investment officer of First Western Trust.
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