The Macquarie Group puts the chances of OPEC reaching a credible crude output agreement that boosts oil prices at 60 percent, but closely followed investor Dennis Gartman thinks those odds are too generous.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may produce a deal when it meets in Vienna on Nov. 30, but it's doubtful such an accord would achieve its aim of bolstering oil prices following a two-year downturn, The Gartman Letter's publisher told CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Thursday.
Gartman ticked off a number of obstacles to putting a floor under oil prices: The chief of Russian oil giant Rosneft continues to insist it will increase output; Iran is intent on restoring production following the lifting of sanctions this year and China's crude demand appears to be moderating.
"I think it's going to be difficult even if they get an agreement to put prices very much higher at all," Gartman said.
Sentiment surrounding an OPEC deal has dominated moves in crude prices since top exporter Saudi Arabia announced the effort last month. Futures came under pressure this week as Iraq said it wanted to be exempt from production quotas.