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Clinton win could be worse for Nov-Dec stock market than Trump: Economist

In election years, the stock market tends to perform better in November and December when a Republican wins the White House, Chase's Anthony Chan tells CNBC.

"I've looked at presidential elections all the way back to 1932," Chan said Monday in a "Squawk on the Street" interview. "So you do see some differences between November and December across presidential election cycles."

Chan said his analysis showed the stock market averaged a decline of 0.9 percent in November when a Democrat won the presidency, followed by a 2 percent bounce back in December.

When Republicans prevail, stocks rose 1.7 percent in November, with a 0.9 percent increase in December, he added. The stock market has historically returned 1.5 percent more with a GOP victory, according to Chan's numbers.

Looking at election results regardless of which party wins, "November, historically, has been a weak month and then it is followed by a bounce back in December," Chan said.

"In fact, in an eight-year presidential cycle what you find is that in November the S&P 500 has gone down by 1.2 percent, and then in December on average it's gone up by 1.5 percent," he added.

Chan said the FBI's October surprise of its renewed interest in Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's emails "is likely to magnify the increased volatility we normally observe during the month when presidential elections are held."

If Republican nominee Donald Trump were to beat Clinton, Chan said there could be some uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve because the real estate billionaire has said he would not look to reappoint Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

"There would be a little bit of a tizzy, a little bit of uncertainty regarding the Fed. [But] the Federal Reserve has been around since 1913 and it will definitely survive," he said.

Over the long term, earnings not elections will drive the stock market, Chan said. "Where are earnings going to be four calendar quarters from here? The answer is they're going to be much higher," especially with depressed oil prices regaining back some ground.

"The only thing that concerns me about earnings is the drag of a stronger dollar could be a problem," he added. The U.S. dollar index against a basket of major currencies is relatively flat on the year, but has been trending higher since the end of April.

A stronger greenback tends to be a drag on American companies selling overseas.