Elections

A Trump victory would be a drag on stocks, says JPMorgan's chief economist

Fed likely to signal December hike: Pro
VIDEO2:1502:15
Fed likely to signal December hike: Pro

If Donald Trump were to win the White House, the markets would feel a negative ripple effect, JPMorgan's chief economist told CNBC on Wednesday.

"If we get a Trump victory, the degree of uncertainty that it is going to create is going to be a negative for U.S. assets," Bruce Kasman said on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange." "It's going to be a negative for the dollar and a negative for equities."

The CBOE Volatility Index, the so-called "fear index," has been rallying in recent sessions, as the polls tighten between Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Ahead of next week's election, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday wraps up its two-day November meeting, with a policy statement on interest rates due at 2 p.m. ET. No rate hike is expected.

Kasman believes the Fed will signal a December move, but he said the election could throw the central bank off course.

As for the bond market, Kasman said reaction to the election is harder to predict, but he said he "wouldn't be pushing for a significant rally on the bond yield."

Despite the uncertainty, Kasman still has an optimistic long-term view. "The economy is going to be doing reasonably well over the next year, a little over 2 percent growth, continuing tightening of the labor market."

"The Fed has more work to do, so our baseline view is that yields do [eventually] move higher," Kasman said.


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