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JPMorgan expects 3% stock market rally if Clinton wins

JPMorgan analysts expect the S&P 500 to recover 3 percent from Friday's close if Hillary Clinton wins the U.S. presidential election Tuesday.

If Clinton wins, the S&P 500 should move back toward 2,150, and European and emerging market stocks should rise 3 to 4 percent, Mislav Matejka and other JPMorgan analysts said in a Monday note. They agreed with the consensus view that a Clinton victory remains more likely than a Donald Trump win.

The S&P 500 closed at 2,085.18 on Friday, posting a nine-day losing streak for the first time since 1980 as the race between Trump and Clinton appeared to tighten. The index fell about 3 percent over that time.

US election expected impact, by sector


Source: JPMorgan US Equity Research

"We believe that if Trump wins, markets are likely to fall further — one should not use the Brexit template where stocks bounced quickly ..." the note said, referring to the rebound shares made shortly after the initial panic that ensued when the United Kingdom voted in June to divorce itself from the European Union.

Information technology stocks should perform well if Clinton wins, the JPMorgan analysts said, while health care, energy, financials and consumer discretionary stocks should not do well.

A Trump win would likely be positive for banks and consumer discretionary stocks, according to the note.