Watch the momentum. "Four years ago we asked the question: Has what you've seen read or heard regarding Mitt Romney or regarding Barack Obama or their campaigns given you a more favorable or less favorable impression?," Newhouse said. "It is what we call the 'campaign information flow question.' It is the leading indicator of ballot change … If we were doing polling right now, you'd see Hillary's numbers being more inverted on that question than Donald Trump's. He clearly has more momentum going into this." Newhouse added that four years ago, that momentum shifted away from Romney and towards Obama after Hurricane Sandy struck some two weeks before the vote and the president was seen much more prominently than his opponent.
States to watch. "Donald Trump is making progress in states like New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado to some extent, Nevada, Michigan," according to Newhouse.
He added: "I'm looking again at Florida. That becomes a must-win state for both candidates. I'll look at North Carolina and Michigan. I think Michigan is closing. I think that's going to be a very competitive race there. Those are the first three. Toward the middle of the country, I'd be paying attention to New Mexico. That's a state I think the Trump people believe they can win, and I'd look at also Nevada."
Senate and House races. "I think you're looking right now at probably 60/40 odds, if not better, that Republicans will hold the Senate, and I think Republican losses in the House may be 15 seats or so. (Republicans) will remain in control of the House," Newhouse said.
His bottom line about Tuesday: "I think potentially it's a late night," Newhouse said. "I'll just put that out there. We could be here for a while."
And that led, arguably, to perhaps his best recommendation based on his reading of the polls: "Get a good night's sleep on Monday night, take a nap on Tuesday, and no drinking until at least 11 pm."
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