Source: JPMorgan US Equity Research
"Our central election expectation continues to be that Sec. Clinton wins the White House, with a slim Democratic majority in the Senate — quite possibly a 50-50 split with the vice president breaking the tie — and a somewhat smaller Republican majority in the House than the 246 seats they currently hold," Goldman economist Alec Phillips said in a Monday note, which did not provide expectations on the market reaction to an election outcome.
"With tight polling in several states, it looks quite possible that a final outcome in the presidential race might not become clear until early on November 9," the note said. "The same holds true in the Senate races, where a delayed outcome in one seat could keep either party from winning an outright majority on election night."
The S&P 500 could potentially fall 11 to 13 percent if Trump wins the election, Keith Parker, global equity strategist, said in a Nov. 1 note. If Clinton wins, the index could rise 2 to 3 percent.
"We see the U.S. election as first: a risk-off/on event initially that has the greatest effect on equities/rates given the uncertainty," he said. "Second, a macro event that (affects) currencies and to a lesser extent commodities; lastly, a micro event that (affects) a number of industries but one that will play out over time as agendas are implemented."
After the Oct. 28 market reaction to news about a new FBI probe into Clinton's emails, Barclays found that health care could underperform by 2 to 3 percent if Clinton wins.
Other notable stock reactions that day included weakness in trade-related equities such as railroads, trucking and air freight, particularly railroad Kansas City Southern, which Barclays said has the highest sales to Mexico in the S&P.
"The tail risks of a Trump victory or a Democratic 'sweep' could result in a market correction in the 5 percent range (similar to Brexit), after which the investment community reassess the environment," Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Tobias Levkovich said in a Nov. 3 note.
Regardless of which candidate wins, Levkovich expects consumer discretionary, energy, financials — especially regional banks — and technology stocks to generally perform well. Materials and real estate should also do well if Trump prevails, according to Levkovich's analysis.